Trade Plan For 8/7/2026
NFP day, what will it bring to the market? We do not have any insight on that make up numbers might be, but we could make a guess on what the machine might set up to do.
The indexes did not make a new high today and the market did not crash. Instead, the market took a pause to digest the recent gains and position itself for tomorrow NFP job report that will come out one hour before the NYSE opening bell.
Today HOD turns out to be just slightly above our monitor level at 7767.25. When the price is below our monitor level, our bias is short. As the price dips below the daily VWAP, it reaffirms our short bias. After the price broke the IBL, the IB statistics tell us there is a 78% chance the HOD was in and it was made by the IBH. Therefore, any short below IBH is a high probability trade.
The only negative from today’s price action is the range extension did not move down to tag our second downside target at 7713.25. Other than that, one can initiate a short near the IB mid in confluent with the VWAP, and short on the rejection from VWAP and near the IBL break targeting the 1.25 & 1.5x IB extension.
In our CHAT, I have posted an overnight trade on the ES with my risk management strategy to illustrate how I reduce my risk and preserve my financial and mental capital as the trade is on-going.
Tomorrow is NFP day. I’m not sure if the market even will respond to the make up numbers anymore. But, as long as the machine can yang the retail traders up and down with the fake move, we will see a temporary move and will hear from all the talking heads analyzing the numbers and inject their opinions on what the FED might do with the interest rate based on these numbers. But, if you really what to know what the implications from the NFP report, look at the 10 & 30 years bonds. The bond market is always smarter than the equity market.
As a trader, ignore all the noise and just watch the price. Price is the ultimate arbiter for the market.
Here are the price levels we will be watching for tomorrow.